Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Mixed indicators = Mixed results

So the fed dropped a key interest rate again today; that's 2 times in as many quarters. Additionally there have been some employment numbers out. While the quarter percent cut in the discount rate was not the hoped for half a percentage point it was still an indicator that the Fed is watching the credit crisis very closely.

What does it mean to us? Well, locally, Houston's economic outlook continues to be bright; for the most part. If one discounts the stalemate in the real estate market. Employment numbers look better than this time last year. Other expansion projects, especially in the bio-tech and medical sector, have just begun and others are well underway that will provide excellent stimulus to our economy.

The real estate market in Houston is a bit sluggish right now but data from various sources suggests this is merely the result of local consumer's lack of confidence based on national news stories of doom and gloom in far flung housing markets. There are many markets that are showing price gains again, some of them in double digits. In fact the Houston Association of Realtor's consumer web site HAR.com is now number 20 on the list of most popular Real Estate related web sites. Additionally national statistics show some increase in homes sales in the next few months.

It's important to remember that real estate is local. It is affected, sometimes significantly, by economic factors outside the market's geographic area but rarely are those permanent; the local economy holds a much stronger sway over a city's real estate market. Also, too often, news outlets, which are for-profit concerns, are often more concerned with grabbing attention more than presenting news for its own sake.

The best advice I can give; talk to someone who is knowledgeable. Talk to your CPA or investment counselor. Talk to your REALTOR®. Talk to someone in manufacturing or logistics. Find out about their position and you'll have a much better idea of what's coming up and can make a more informed decision.

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